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Retrospective scouting report · Class of 2026R5 · #164
TE· Round 5

Tanner
Koziol.

Tanner Koziol
Sickos Grade
47/100

Houston official athletic logoHouston· 6'7"· 247 lb· 4.70s 40

/ Recruiting profile
★★☆☆☆stars.7859
National · #2603HS class · 2021
Nazareth Academy, IL
247Sports composite via CFBD
Jacksonville Jaguars NFL team logoR5 · #164 · Jacksonville Jaguars

"Rangy in-line/move Y with rare catch radius and All-American production, but 4.70 speed and stiff hips make him a possession target and pass-pro projection at the next level."Pre-draft read

01Play style

Aligns as an in-line Y and detached from the slot, winning with length. He snaps hands late and plucks outside his frame; high-point wins on hitches, seams, and back-shoulder throws are his signature. His route tree lives in the intermediate: option routes, sit-downs versus zone, seams up the middle, and a stop-and-turn on third down. Body positioning is his separator; he shields defenders with his back and boxes out safeties.

Feet get heavy at the top of stems and hips are late to flip, so he does not uncover with quickness in isolation. As a run blocker, he moves his feet on the move and mirrors on angles. However, his posture drifts high and his anchor gives against strong-side ends.

02Scheme fit
Ideal system

The Jacksonville Jaguars operate a spread-to-run system, blending West Coast passing concepts with zone-read and RPO elements, emphasizing versatile skill players.

Y-tight endSlot/wing TEH-backMove TE
Best role

Immediate TE2 capable of moving the chains and excelling in the red zone, with a ceiling as a reliable, high-volume TE1 in a play-action heavy offense.

Wrong fit

A vertical-stretch offensive scheme that relies on tight ends to win regularly down the seam and create big plays with long speed.

Koziol's excellent catch radius and chain-moving ability make him a strong fit for a West Coast-style offense that prioritizes intermediate targets and red-zone effectiveness, despite his lack of elite long speed.

03Film room

Tanner Koziol Regular Season Highlights | 2025 Big 12 Football

Game film cut-up of Tanner Koziol's Houston tape.

Tanner Koziol 2025 Houston Season Highlights

Game film cut-up of Tanner Koziol's Houston tape.

TE Tanner Koziol has 100-YARD Game for Houston | 2025 Big 12 Football

Game film cut-up of Tanner Koziol's Houston tape.

04The evaluation

This prospect projects as a reliable chain-moving tight end with red-zone utility, offering a team a trustworthy target over the middle. His excellent catch radius and advanced feel for route running against various coverages make him a viable option for critical downs, even if he lacks explosive athletic traits. He is best suited for an offensive scheme that values tight end involvement in intermediate passing concepts and around the goal line.

He spent three seasons at Ball State, culminating in a 94-catch, 839-yard, eight-touchdown season in 2024, earning All-America honors. After transferring to Houston for his senior year, he maintained high production with 74 catches for 727 yards and six scores, demonstrating his ability to produce against Power Five competition. His performance against Oregon State (6-86-1) in a comeback victory underscored his potential in high-leverage situations.

Evaluators noted his 4.70 forty time and 1.63 ten-split as limitations to his long speed, along with concerns about hip flexibility in routes. Despite these flags, his reliable hands and catch radius suggested a Day 3 selection, projecting him as a mover-Y tight end with potential to develop into a backup or low-end TE1. He was drafted in the fifth round, 164th overall.

05Strengths
  1. 01

    Catch radius and hands

    33 3/4-inch arms and 9 3/4-inch hands allow him to pluck outside his frame; consistently high-points hitches and back-shoulder throws.

  2. 02

    Chain-mover route feel

    Reads leverage and settles into windows on option routes and dig variations; his consistent production across multiple seasons shows trust.

  3. 03

    Red-zone weapon

    24 career touchdowns, using his body to box out safeties; recognized as one of the best red-zone tight ends in his class.

  4. 04

    Production against every level

    Cleared 700 receiving yards in both the MAC (2024) and Big 12 (2025) with two different quarterbacks.

  5. 05

    Scheme versatility

    Comfortable in-line, wing, and detached-slot alignments; usable in 12 personnel and empty sets, fitting modern offenses.

06Concerns
  1. 01

    Long speed cap

    His 4.70 forty and 1.63 ten split confirm that he does not stretch the seam, allowing safeties to sit on intermediate routes.

  2. 02

    Tight hips at the stem

    Feet get heavy at the top of routes; struggles to uncover in isolation versus quick nickel defenders and safeties.

  3. 03

    In-line anchor questions

    Posture drifts high in on-ball blocks, and strong-side ends can knock him off the point of attack.

  4. 04

    Level-of-competition split

    His monster 2024 season occurred in the MAC; a very good but not dominant rate in the Big 12 represented a gap.

07Athletic testing
Height
6'7"
Weight
247 lb
40 yd
4.70s
Vertical
36.5"
Broad
10'2"
06Athletic profilevs. TE on Big Board
40VERTBRD3CSHTLBNCH

— — — positional median (p50)

40 yd
4.70sp50
Vertical
36.5inp50
Broad jump
122inp50
Three-cone
s
Shuttle
s
Bench
rep
08College production
YrTeamGRecYdsTD
2022Ball State12353737
2023Ball State12342953
2024Ball State12948398
2025Houston13747276
Career49237223424

A dash means the figure is not published by a source we trust — never a zero we invented.

/ Efficiency, 2025
average
Predicted Points Added / play
+0.612
percentile at position
62%
PPA · pass
+0.612
CFBD PPA — 0 = league-average play
/ Usage share, 2025
9.0%of team plays
98 percentile at positionHouston
Pass plays · 21.2%Run plays · 0.0%Third down · 12.7%Passing downs · 11.7%
CFBD usage — share of the offense's plays involving the player
Share of production2025 · Houston
13%of the offense's positive expected-points output
Production share13%
Snap share9%
  • Conner WeigmanQB35%
  • Amare ThomasWR16%
  • Stephon Johnson Jr.WR13%

#3 of 12 tracked contributors · Produced well above his snap share · Offense explosiveness 1.22 (p40) · CFBD — usage x PPA per tracked player

09Pro comparisons
/ Likely outcome
Foster MoreauNO

Long-limbed move-Y and red-zone piece who backed up starters and cashed in on scheme-specific looks.

/ Ceiling
Cade OttonTB

Big-frame Y who won with route feel and hands more than juice and carved out a starter role early.

/ Floor
Chase AllenMIA

Big-body possession TE who bounced between practice squad and TE3 role — the outcome if the blocking never comes.

10In hindsight

Everything above is the pre-draft evaluation. This section is what actually happened — updated year over year.

Pro Bowls
0
All-Pro
0
Seasons
Career AV

Pre-draft context: Koziol was a lightly recruited three-star from Bloomingdale, Ill., who committed to Ball State and started immediately as a true freshman (35-373-7 in 2022). A quiet 2023 (34-295-3) preceded the 2024 explosion — 94 catches, 839 yards and eight touchdowns, second-team AP All-American at the FBS level as a MAC tight end. Rather than declare, he transferred to Houston for a fifth season, faced Big 12 defenses week after week and still cleared 700 yards on 74 grabs. Evaluators loved the size, hands and route feel; they flagged 4.70 speed, tight hips and an anchor problem in-line.

NFL fit — Jacksonville: Jacksonville took him at 164 to add a big-body Y behind Brenton Strange and Johnny Mundt. Fit makes sense: the offensive approach leans on 12 personnel and boot game, and Koziol's hands, catch radius and option-route feel give the Jaguars a red-zone and third-down piece Trevor Lawrence has lacked in the middle of the field. Year-one path is TE3, jumbo-set snaps and short-yardage. If he adds anchor at the point of attack, he can play into a two-TE rotation by year two.

Retrospective: The evaluation on Koziol was straightforward and Jacksonville treated it that way. He is not a Kincaid-style movement TE — the 4.70 and stiff hips are real caps — but the production against MAC and Big 12 corners with two different quarterbacks, plus the arm length and hands, made him a defensible Day 3 bet at a position where size and reliability age well. Fifth-round mover-Y with backup-to-TE2 upside is the honest read.

Draft Sickos · retrospective scouting profile