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Retrospective scouting report · Class of 2026R5 · #152
TE· Round 5

Justin
Joly.

Justin Joly
Sickos Grade
54.3/100

NC State official athletic logoNC State· 6'3"· 246 lb

Denver Broncos NFL team logoR5 · #152 · Denver Broncos

"Move tight end with reliable hands and route feel who wins as an F/H detached, breaking out at NC State with 15 career receiving TDs and true seam speed after transferring from UConn."Pre-draft read

01Play style

He aligns primarily as a detached F/flex tight end, with situational reps in-line and in the slot on 12-personnel. His primary win is separation off the line. He releases with a stem that threatens vertically before working back to the ball, sits down cleanly in zone voids, and stacks defenders on seam and post routes. His hands are natural and quiet, and he catches away from the frame in traffic and adjusts to back-shoulder throws without stalling his stride. His route feel against zone is a secondary trait; he sees leverage late and finds soft spots at the sticks.

As a blocker, he plays with functional grip strength on move duty and combo work, but his base and anchor are still developing at the point of attack. His athletic ceiling is average, and his effectiveness is sold on feel, timing, and hands.

02Scheme fit
Ideal system

This prospect best fits a spread RPO or West Coast timing scheme that prioritizes athletic pass-catching tight ends in detached alignments.

F/flex TESlot TEMove TE
Best role

Joly projects as a year-one depth F/flex tight end with a ceiling to develop into a reliable receiving option, particularly in the red zone.

Wrong fit

He would be a poor fit for a gap/duo power run game that frequently asks its tight ends to block in-line against powerful defensive ends.

Joly's nuanced route running against zone, natural hands, and red-zone effectiveness make him a valuable receiving asset despite his average athletic ceiling.

03Film room

Justin Joly 2025 Regular Season Highlights | NC State Tight End

Senior-year reel showcasing red-zone wins, seam routes and hands in traffic.

Justin Joly (TE) | FULL NC State Highlights | Welcome to the Denver Broncos

Post-draft cutup covering full NC State career with route work and YAC reps.

Justin Joly 2024 Highlights

Junior breakout tape at 15.4 yards per catch, seam and crossers from flex alignments.

04The evaluation

He projects as an F-tight end whose primary value will be as a receiving option in passing situations, particularly from detached alignments. His hands, route feel, and ability to track the ball in the air provide a clear role on offense, while his average athletic profile places a premium on his technical execution and football intelligence.

After starting his career at UConn, he transferred to NC State, where he developed into a reliable receiving threat, accumulating 166 catches for 1,978 yards and 15 touchdowns across 49 collegiate games. His junior season at NC State, where he posted 43 receptions for 661 yards and 4 touchdowns at 15.4 yards per catch, established him as a productive target, showcasing his ability to deliver across multiple schemes.

Evaluations noted a strong receiving profile countered by an average athletic ceiling and an in-line blocking grade requiring development. Consensus among evaluators placed him as a Day 3 player with evident passing-down utility, and he was ultimately drafted in the fifth round.

05Strengths
  1. 01

    Reliable hands

    He catches away from his frame in traffic and adjusts to back-shoulder throws without stalling his stride or body movement.

  2. 02

    Detached alignment separation

    His primary win is separation off the line as he releases with a stem that threatens vertically and stacks defenders.

  3. 03

    Reads leverage in voids

    He sits down cleanly in zone voids and his route feel against zone is a secondary trait as he finds soft spots at the sticks.

  4. 04

    Functional grip strength

    As a blocker, he plays with functional grip strength on move duty and on combo blocks against defensive linemen.

  5. 05

    Receiving versatility

    He aligns primarily as a detached F/flex tight end, with situational reps in-line and in the slot in 12 personnel.

06Concerns
  1. 01

    Blocking base and anchor

    His base and anchor are still developing at the point of attack, impacting his effectiveness as an in-line blocker.

  2. 02

    Average athletic ceiling

    His athletic ceiling is average, which means effectiveness relies on feel, timing, and hands more than burst.

  3. 03

    Inconsistent contested catches

    His contested-catch consistency against tight man matchups is lower than his performance in zone coverage.

  4. 04

    Limited special teams

    He has limited core-four special teams reps, increasing expectation for his offensive snap count role.

08College production
YrTeamGRecYdsTD
2022UConn12182502
2023UConn12565622
2024NC State13436614
2025NC State12494897
Career49166196215

A dash means the figure is not published by a source we trust — never a zero we invented.

/ Efficiency, 2025
average
Predicted Points Added / play
+0.436
percentile at position
44%
PPA · pass
+0.436
CFBD PPA — 0 = league-average play
/ Usage share, 2025
7.9%of team plays
97 percentile at positionNC State
Pass plays · 15.7%Run plays · 0.0%Third down · 7.0%Passing downs · 9.0%
CFBD usage — share of the offense's plays involving the player
Share of production2025 · NC State
5%of the offense's positive expected-points output
Production share5%
Snap share8%
  • CJ BaileyQB31%
  • Terrell AndersonWR9%
  • Ethan DowdyWR8%

#7 of 14 tracked contributors · Production leaned on volume · Offense explosiveness 1.38 (p93) · CFBD — usage x PPA per tracked player

09Pro comparisons
/ Likely outcome
Josh OliverMIN

Move tight end who turned reliable hands and detached-alignment value into a rotational NFL role.

/ Ceiling
Tyler HigbeeLAR

F-tight end whose hands and route feel let him grow into a starter despite average athletic testing.

/ Floor
Ian ThomasCAR

Body-catcher move tight end whose blocking limitations kept him on the back half of the depth chart.

10In hindsight

Everything above is the pre-draft evaluation. This section is what actually happened — updated year over year.

Pro Bowls
0
All-Pro
0
Seasons
Career AV

Pre-draft context Justin Joly grew up in New Jersey, signed with UConn out of high school and stacked two productive seasons in Storrs before transferring to NC State ahead of the 2024 cycle. He caught 74 balls for 828 yards in the AAC/Independent stretch, then jumped to the ACC and turned into one of the more trusted receiving tight ends in the league, finishing his career with 166 receptions for 1,978 yards and 15 touchdowns across 49 games. The 2024 tape carried the evaluation — 43-661-4 at 15.4 yards per catch on a possession offense — and the 2025 senior year added a red-zone spike (seven receiving scores) even as intermediate volume dipped. Combine and pro-day timing splits never surfaced publicly, so scouts leaned on route tape, hands and two seasons of ACC production over tested traits.

NFL fit — Denver Broncos The offensive approach in Denver has kept a rotational F-tight end job available behind veteran players who specialize in blocking and the incumbent starter, and Joly slots straight into that flex role. Rookie usage is likely built around 11-personnel passing downs, red-zone packages and detached alignments where his hands and route feel show up, with in-line snaps saved for the veterans until the blocking grade catches up. Special-teams reps will decide whether he stays active as a fifth or sixth tight end.

Retrospective At 152 the pick is the classic Day 3 receiving tight end swing — you already know what he is on passing downs, and you find out later whether the base can grow into a two-way role. The ceiling case is Tyler Higbee, a move tight end whose hands and feel outran his testing profile and grew into an offensive-package starter. The likely case is a Josh Oliver-style rotational tight end who lives on 12-personnel and red-zone snaps. The floor is a passing-down specialist whose blocking never gets there and who bounces between the active roster and practice squad after his rookie deal.

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