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Retrospective scouting report · Class of 2026Consensus #065
QB· Round 3

Carson
Beck.

Carson Beck
Sickos Grade
64.3/100
Pre-draft #65

Miami (FL) official athletic logoMiami (FL)· 6'5"· 233 lb

/ Recruiting profile
★★★★stars.9095
National · #254HS class · 2020
Mandarin, FL
247Sports composite via CFBD

"Timing pocket passer with legitimate NFL arm and rhythm-throw tape after a Miami reset, but 2024 UCL surgery and turnover regression drop the ceiling to a bridge starter with QB2 downside."Pre-draft read

01Play style

Operates as a full-field rhythm passer, primarily from under center and shotgun in a play-action, half-field-read offense. He delivers the ball with a compact, over-the-top motion and a snappy release. He exhibits good late-hip velocity on out-breakers and comeback throws to the boundary, reading defenses cleanly on first down and layering deep-middle shots off play-action.

He remains composed in the pocket against clean rushes, anticipating dig and post windows with touch. When the pocket collapses, his footwork can become unsettled, leading to throws off his back foot and floated attempts. While not a designed runner, he functions as a scramble-to-throw operator, willing to slide protection.

02Scheme fit
Ideal system

Play-action heavy West Coast offense that features half-field reads and layers deep shots off a run-action look.

Under centerShotgunPro-style pocket QB
Best role

Beck can develop into a starting rhythm passer who can win on scheme, anticipation, and touch; Year 1 will likely be developmental depth.

Wrong fit

Spread RPO where he's exposed as a decision-maker on extended plays.

Beck's play style fits the current NFL trend of rhythm and timing passers, but his creation and improvisation limits his scheme fits.

03Film room

Carson Beck 2025 Regular Season Highlights | Miami QB

Full 2025 Miami highlight cut — RPO release, layered play-action shots and boundary out-breakers that rebuilt his stock.

Carson Beck on transferring to Miami | ACC Media Day

Media Day sit-down explaining the Georgia exit, the OC/scheme fit at Miami and the arm-elbow rehab timeline.

Carson Beck opens up on his exit from Georgia | Combine

2026 Combine interview walking through the 2024 collapse, the UCL surgery decision and how Miami reframed his tape.

04The evaluation

This timing pocket passer projects as a developmental QB2, a role reflecting both his potential and identified concerns. He offers a pro-style operation with the arm talent to drive the ball on the perimeter, fitting offenses that prioritize rhythm and anticipation within structured concepts. His 30 5/8-inch arm length, while below average for the position, did not prevent him from showcasing a compact release.

His career path was marked by a transfer and recovery from injury. After redshirting in 2020 and backing up for two seasons at Georgia, he started in 2023, throwing for 3,941 yards with 24 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. A UCL surgery in December 2024, after a 2024 season marked by 12 interceptions, led to a transfer to Miami, where he threw for 3,813 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in 2025, culminating in a national title game appearance.

Evaluators were concerned by a history of turnovers under pressure and a significant medical flag regarding his right elbow. Despite these issues and a perceived ceiling as a bridge starter, he was selected by the Arizona Cardinals in the third round. His market value was influenced by the trade-off between his arm talent and system fit versus his injury history and occasional decision-making under duress.

05Strengths
  1. 01

    True NFL arm on the perimeter

    Drives out-breakers, deep comebacks, and hash-to-boundary digs with late-hip torque; velocity plays even off platform reset.

  2. 02

    Rhythm and timing on structured concepts

    Comfortable full-field reader in half-field play-action; anticipates dig, post, and glance windows against zone.

  3. 03

    Compact release and clean base

    Quick over-the-top delivery with a repeatable trigger; ball comes out with pace on 3-step and RPO throws.

  4. 04

    Two systems, real production

    8,240 yards and 58 TDs across 2023 Georgia and 2025 Miami, plus a run to the national title game as the Hurricanes' first-year starter.

  5. 05

    Pro-style resume

    Ran a mature Georgia offense with NFL protections; kept the same layered reads at Miami, showing scheme translation between staffs.

06Concerns
  1. 01

    Right elbow medical

    UCL reconstruction in December 2024 required a full spring rehab; medical grades framed his fall as much as tape did.

  2. 02

    Turnover history under pressure

    24 interceptions across 29 starts, including a stretch in 2024 versus Texas and Alabama where he pressed into contested windows.

  3. 03

    Muddy pocket footwork

    Base widens and platform tips when the rush closes; late throws off the back foot leak into linebacker depth.

  4. 04

    Creation ceiling capped

    Functional scrambler but not a legitimate second-reaction improviser; when the first two reads close, plays flatten out.

08College production
YrTeamGCmpAttYdsTDInt
2021Georgia4102317622
2022Georgia7263531040
2023Georgia143024173941246
2024Georgia1329044834852812
2025Miami1633846838133012
Career549661391117258832

A dash means the figure is not published by a source we trust — never a zero we invented.

/ Efficiency, 2025
good
Predicted Points Added / play
+0.318
percentile at position
77%
PPA · pass
+0.374
PPA · rush
+0.044
CFBD PPA — 0 = league-average play
/ Usage share, 2025
47.8%of team plays
79 percentile at positionMiami
Pass plays · 91.5%Run plays · 8.3%Third down · 69.2%Passing downs · 72.7%
CFBD usage — share of the offense's plays involving the player
Share of production2025 · Miami
26%of the offense's positive expected-points output
Production share26%
Snap share48%
  • Malachi ToneyWR10%
  • C.J. DanielsWR10%
  • Keelan MarionWR8%

#1 of 18 tracked contributors · Production leaned on volume · Offense explosiveness 1.16 (p12) · CFBD — usage x PPA per tracked player

09Pro comparisons
/ Likely outcome
Sam HowellMIN

Bridge-starter QB with real arm talent, muddy pocket footwork and a turnover profile that limits the ceiling to backup or short-term starter.

/ Ceiling
Kirk CousinsATL

Rhythm pocket passer whose numbers and arm play up in a play-action system and shrink under pressure and third down.

/ Floor
Kenny PickettPHI

Pro-style pocket passer with medical questions who settles into a career QB2 role once the initial starter runway ends.

10In hindsight

Everything above is the pre-draft evaluation. This section is what actually happened — updated year over year.

Pro Bowls
0
All-Pro
0
Seasons
Career AV

**Pre-draft context** Carson Beck's evaluation is really two evaluations stitched together. The 2023 version was a first-year starter at Georgia — 3,941 yards, 24 touchdowns, six interceptions — who inherited a pro-style operation from Stetson Bennett and looked the part of a top-of-the-board 2025 QB. The 2024 version pressed under real duress, threw 12 picks (including a rough Texas game and a bumpy Alabama night), then tore his UCL against Texas in the SEC title game and had December surgery, ending his CFP run and his draft momentum. He transferred to Miami rather than declare from injury, and the 2025 rebuild — 3,813/30/12 in Shannon Dawson's offense — got him to the national title game against Fernando Mendoza's Indiana defense and back onto the Day 2 board. Combine measurements (6'4 3/4"/233, 10" hands, 30 5/8" arms) reset the height/weight case but flagged short arms, and he threw at Indy and pro day rather than run.

**NFL fit — Arizona Cardinals** Arizona took Beck at 65 as a developmental pocket passer for the depth chart. The offense already features full-field play-action and shot concepts that fit Beck's rhythm-throw profile; the Cardinals also protect their QB2 role for a system passer rather than a designed runner. Year-one usage projects as scout-team install and preseason starter reps, with the medical staff monitoring the elbow through a full offseason. If Murray misses time, Beck's pro-style backfield operation and pre-snap comfort give Arizona a plausible bridge starter without asking him to create off script.

**Retrospective** This pick reads as Arizona buying the 2023/2025 tape at a Day 2 discount instead of a Day 1 tax. The arm and system fit are real; the turnover profile and elbow medical are the reason he's a QB2 developmental at 65 rather than a top-40 lock. His career arc will hinge on whether he stays healthy enough to protect the Cardinals' floor when the starter is out.

Draft Sickos · retrospective scouting profile