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Retrospective scouting report · Class of 2026R4 · #136
WR· Round 4

Bryce
Lance.

Bryce Lance
Sickos Grade
54.8/100

North Dakota State official athletic logoNorth Dakota State· 6'3"· 204 lb· 4.34s 40

New Orleans Saints NFL team logoR4 · #136 · New Orleans Saints

"Late-blooming FCS X with a 4.34/41.5" combine explosion after a two-year, 126-catch, 24-TD breakout at NDSU; contested-catch and speed sell, route polish is the flag."Pre-draft read

01Play style

This outside receiver wins the boundary with build-up speed, eating cushion on his vertical stem, tracking the deep ball over either shoulder, and attacking the catch point with strong late hands. He uses his frame to box out smaller corners on back-shoulder fades and slants, finishing through contact instead of cradling the ball. His release package is functional against off- and press coverage, stemming press with a hop-and-rip and climbing the near-hip on posts.

His route tree emphasizes go, dig, slant, and comeback routes rather than layered nod-and-break concepts, with only average separation at the top of intermediate breaks. He is a willing stalk blocker on the perimeter and competes on kickoff and gunner reps. He displays plus body control through his ball tracking.

02Scheme fit
Ideal system

A modern Air Raid or spread RPO passing system with concepts designed to create vertical separation and exploit single coverage.

Boundary 'X' WRGo/fade specialistRed zone threat
Best role

Year 1 as a perimeter special teams contributor and rotational deep threat who can eventually develop into a starting 'X' receiver, specializing in contested catches and vertical routes.

Wrong fit

A traditional West Coast timing scheme that demands a polished route runner with a diverse and nuanced route tree from Day 1.

His elite athletic traits and contested catch ability make him an ideal fit for systems that prioritize downfield attacking, though his route tree requires significant development.

03Film room

4.34 SPEED 🔥🔥🔥

Game film cut-up of Bryce Lance's North Dakota State tape.

Bryce Lance Highlights | New Orleans Saints Wide Receiver

Game film cut-up of Bryce Lance's North Dakota State tape.

Bryce Lance College Highlights | North Dakota State WR

Game film cut-up of Bryce Lance's North Dakota State tape.

04The evaluation

Bryce Lance projects as a developmental 'X' receiver, offering a valuable combination of size and elite straight-line speed. Teams are investing in his vertical threat capability and contested-catch ability, betting on a high ceiling for a player with only one full season of high-volume production but exceptional athletic traits, highlighted by his 4.34 forty-yard dash time.

Lance arrived at North Dakota State in 2021 and spent three seasons largely on special teams before emerging as a starter. He posted 75 receptions for 1,053 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2024, followed by 51 receptions for 1,079 yards and 8 touchdowns with a 21.2 yards per catch average in 2025, earning FCS All-American honors. His late breakout and usage against FCS competition define his current evaluation.

Concerns centered on his limited route tree, the overall competition level, and his late-blooming production arc, which left evaluators with only one high-volume season to analyze. Consensus graded him as a Day 3 developmental prospect, and he was ultimately selected by the New Orleans Saints with pick 136 in the fourth round.

05Strengths
  1. 01

    Vertical Threat Speed

    Vertical Threat Speed — He possesses build-up speed that eats cushion and stacks corners on go routes, supported by his 4.34 forty-yard dash.

  2. 02

    Contested Catch Strength

    Contested Catch Strength — He attacks the ball with strong late hands and finishes through contact on slants, fades, and comebacks.

  3. 03

    Frame for X-Receiver

    Frame for X-Receiver — He uses his frame and length, at 6-3 3/8, to box out smaller corners on back-shoulder fades and slants.

  4. 04

    Body Control & Tracking

    Body Control & Tracking — He displays plus body control and tracking skills on deep balls, adjust to throws and securing catches.

  5. 05

    Special Teams Competitor

    Special Teams Competitor — He is a willing stalk blocker on the perimeter and competes on kickoff and gunner reps.

06Concerns
  1. 01

    Limited Route Tree

    Limited Route Tree — His route tree emphasizes go, dig, slant, and comeback routes rather than layered nod-and-break concepts.

  2. 02

    Average COD

    Average COD — He shows only average separation at the top of intermediate breaks, leading to drift against defensive backs.

  3. 03

    Competition Level

    Competition Level — His late breakout and usage against FCS competition define his current evaluation without elite defensive backs.

  4. 04

    Late Production Arc

    Late Production Arc — His late-blooming production arc left evaluators with only one high-volume season to analyze.

07Athletic testing
Height
6'3"
Weight
204 lb
40 yd
4.34s
Vertical
41.5"
Broad
11'1"
3-cone
7.00s
Shuttle
4.15s
06Athletic profilevs. WR on Big Board
40VERTBRD3CSHTLBNCH

— — — positional median (p50)

40 yd
4.34sp50
Vertical
41.5inp50
Broad jump
133inp50
Three-cone
7.00sp50
Shuttle
4.15sp50
Bench
rep
08College production
YrTeamGRecYdsTD
2023North Dakota State15170
2024North Dakota State1675105417
2025North Dakota State135110798
Career44127214025

A dash means the figure is not published by a source we trust — never a zero we invented.

/ Efficiency, 2025
good
Predicted Points Added / play
+0.846
percentile at position
84%
PPA · pass
+0.799
PPA · rush
+1.540
CFBD PPA — 0 = league-average play
/ Usage share, 2025
7.9%of team plays
80 percentile at positionNorth Dakota State
Pass plays · 21.1%Run plays · 0.8%Third down · 12.3%Passing downs · 9.2%
CFBD usage — share of the offense's plays involving the player
Share of production2025 · North Dakota State
10%of the offense's positive expected-points output
Production share10%
Snap share8%
  • Cole PaytonQB33%
  • Barika KpeenuRB7%
  • Nathan HayesQB5%

#2 of 18 tracked contributors · Produced in line with his snap share · CFBD — usage x PPA per tracked player

09Pro comparisons
/ Likely outcome
Alec PierceIND

Combine-testing X with elite explosion at 6-3, 204 whose NFL role has been vertical/back-shoulder specialist with situational red-zone value.

/ Ceiling
Nico CollinsHOU

Big-framed outside X with plus vertical juice who was slow-cooked into a WR1 role once his release and intermediate menu caught up to his contested-catch tape.

/ Floor
Trey PalmerTB

Fast, long boundary receiver whose route tree stayed narrow at the pro level and settled into a rotational field-side and special-teams role.

10In hindsight

Everything above is the pre-draft evaluation. This section is what actually happened — updated year over year.

Pro Bowls
0
All-Pro
0
Seasons
Career AV

Pre-draft context

Bryce Lance was the classic FCS late-bloomer with brand-name lineage. He came to Fargo in 2021 as a Marshall, Minnesota three-star whose older brother Trey had gone third overall to the 49ers months earlier, then spent 2022-23 almost entirely on special teams (one catch for seven yards across two seasons). Everything flipped once he cracked the starting lineup in 2024: 75 catches, 1,053 yards and 14 touchdowns on a 16-0 FCS national championship team, then a 51-catch, 1,079-yard, 21.2 YPC senior year that made him first-team All-MVFC and an FCS All-American. Two seasons, 126 catches, 24 touchdowns, one national title, one Bison receiving record after another. Scouts arrived expecting a big-framed possession X and got a boundary vertical threat instead.

NFL fit — New Orleans

The Combine cemented the ceiling. At 6-3 3/8 and 204 pounds with 32 1/8" arms, Lance ran 4.34, jumped 41.5" and 11-1, and posted a 7.00 three-cone — top-tier explosion and long speed at real X size. New Orleans, mid-reset at receiver and looking for perimeter juice to pair with its top of the depth chart, spent pick 136 on him as a Day 3 developmental X with a starter runway. Early camp reports have him working outside in three-wide and taking gunner reps on both punt teams, mirroring his college special-teams background. Realistic Year-1 role is WR4-5 with sub-package field-side reps and a package of go, back-shoulder and dig concepts sized to his release menu.

Retrospective

Too early for a career verdict — this profile is a snapshot of the projection, not the outcome. The bet the Saints made is on trait scarcity: 4.34 speed at 204 with contested-catch tape is a legitimate developmental X in a league that keeps paying for outside vertical. The counter is the same it was on draft weekend — one full high-volume season, FCS competition tier, and a route tree that still needs the intermediate layer to look pro. If he stacks a redzone role and a downfield package in Year 1, the eval hits; if he stays a special-teamer with a niche package, the flag wins. Update after Year 2.

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