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Retrospective scouting report · Class of 2025Consensus #040
QB· Round 2

Tyler
Shough.

Tyler Shough
Sickos Grade
70.9/100
Pre-draft #40

Louisville official athletic logoLouisville· 6'5"· 219 lb· 4.63s 40

/ Recruiting profile
★★★★stars.9422
National · #140HS class · 2018
Hamilton, AZ
247Sports composite via CFBD
R2 · #40 · New Orleans Saints

"A mature, pocket-centric rhythm passer who consistently delivers the ball with veteran command, Shough's NFL value hinges on his ability to stay healthy and maximize a short developmental runway."Pre-draft read

01Play style

Seven-year college quarterback who plays from the pocket first and wins with timing, placement and a compact release that lets him throw on rhythm. He attacks the middle of the field with anticipation, throws receivers open on in-breakers and comebacks, and layers the intermediate levels with touch instead of leaning on raw velocity.

There is enough arm to drive the deep out and take the top off, and he is at home under center off play-action, which widens the concept menu for a coordinator. Mobility is functional rather than dynamic: he slides to extend and will keep it on third-and-short, but the offense is not built off his legs. The signature trait is calm — he plays on schedule and rarely compounds a bad play.

02Scheme fit
Ideal system

Play-action based timing offense with West Coast spacing and heavy under-center usage

Under centerShotgunPistolPlay-action boot
Best role

Year 1: immediate bridge starter running a rhythm-and-timing script with a defined run game. Ceiling: a low-variance full-time starter who protects the ball and elevates a complete roster.

Wrong fit

A collapsing offensive line paired with a hero-ball passing script that asks him to create off-platform on true dropbacks, or a designed-QB-run offense that needs the quarterback as a rushing threat.

Best paired with an offense that gets the ball out on time and uses motion to declare coverage before the snap.

03Film room

Tyler Shough 2024 Regular Season Highlights | Louisville QB

Full-season Louisville reel: anticipation throws over the middle and play-action shots.

Tyler Shough Texas Tech Highlights

Big 12 tape showing the pocket base, red-zone keepers and boundary throws before the Louisville year.

HYPE - Tyler Shough SHINES in Rookie Season

2025 rookie-season plays from his nine starts, including the Week 17 outing vs Tennessee.

04The evaluation

Shough is the rare modern prospect whose evaluation is about maturity rather than projection. He is a full-field passer with a clean base, quiet feet and the operational command of a player who has run four different systems, and the tape shows a quarterback who understands leverage, coverage rotation and where the answer lives before the snap.

The production finally matched the traits in 2024 at Louisville, where he handled Jeff Brohm's play-action heavy structure and pushed the ball down the field without giving games away. The flags are real and they are not about talent: seven college seasons, three schools, two broken collarbones and a broken leg, and a rookie year that would begin at 25 years old. The margin for a slow start is thin when the developmental runway is that short.

The board treated him as the QB4-to-QB6 range in a weak class, with most evaluators tagging a Day 2 grade and a starter-if-the-room-is-right projection. New Orleans, sitting without an answer at the position, took the most NFL-ready arm on the board at 40 and accepted the age for the floor.

05Strengths
  1. 01

    Anticipation

    He throws in-breakers and comebacks before the receiver declares, working the middle of the field off coverage rotation rather than waiting for separation to show up.

  2. 02

    Ball placement

    Layers throws to the intermediate levels with real touch, dropping the ball over linebackers and away from safety help instead of leaning on velocity to fit windows.

  3. 03

    Operational command

    Four systems and seven seasons of reps show up in the huddle-to-snap process: clean cadence, protection help, and quick answers when the front rotates late.

  4. 04

    Play-action fluency

    Comfortable under center with his back to the defense, selling the mesh and getting his eyes to the second level on time in a Brohm offense built off run action.

  5. 05

    Decision discipline

    Takes the checkdown when the picture is muddy and rarely turns a bad play into a disaster, a trait that produced only six interceptions on 389 attempts in 2024.

06Concerns
  1. 01

    Age and runway

    Seven college seasons and a rookie year that started at 25 leave almost no developmental window; the team drafting him needed a starter, not a project.

  2. 02

    Durability file

    Two broken collarbones at Texas Tech and a broken leg at Oregon cost him large chunks of three separate seasons and are the reason the sample took so long to build.

  3. 03

    Pressure response

    Ball placement and footwork degrade when the pocket collapses early; he will drift off his spot and drop his platform instead of resetting and climbing.

  4. 04

    Limited creation

    Functional mobility only, so the offense loses value on true scramble downs and cannot lean on designed quarterback runs to manufacture yards.

07Athletic testing
Height
6'5"
Weight
219 lb
40 yd
4.63s
Vertical
32"
Broad
9'9"
06Athletic profilevs. QB on Big Board
40VERTBRD3CSHTLBNCH

— — — positional median (p50)

40 yd
4.63sp50
Vertical
32inp50
Broad jump
117inp50
Three-cone
s
Shuttle
s
Bench
rep
08College production
YrTeamGCmpAttYdsTDInt
2019Oregon5121514430
2020Oregon71051661540136
2021Texas Tech4649287263
2022Texas Tech7106177130474
2023Texas Tech46711174674
2024Louisville122443893195236
Career3959895078015923

A dash means the figure is not published by a source we trust — never a zero we invented.

/ Efficiency, 2024
good
Predicted Points Added / play
+0.390
percentile at position
76%
PPA · pass
+0.404
PPA · rush
+0.204
CFBD PPA — 0 = league-average play
/ Usage share, 2024
54.1%of team plays
88 percentile at positionLouisville
Pass plays · 96.8%Run plays · 7.5%Third down · 74.3%Passing downs · 76.0%
CFBD usage — share of the offense's plays involving the player
Share of production2024 · Louisville
20%of the offense's positive expected-points output
Production share20%
Snap share54%
  • Harrison BaileyQB13%
  • Ja'Corey BrooksWR12%
  • Chris BellWR7%

#1 of 20 tracked contributors · Production leaned on volume · Offense explosiveness 1.36 (p91) · CFBD — usage x PPA per tracked player

09Pro comparisons
/ Likely outcome
Sam DarnoldMinnesota Vikings

Structure-dependent starter who thrives with play-action and a real run game around him.

/ Ceiling
Kirk CousinsMinnesota Vikings

Rhythm-and-anticipation starter who wins from a clean pocket and stacks efficient seasons.

/ Floor
Nick MullensMinnesota Vikings

Accurate on-schedule backup whose ceiling stalls once pressure and off-platform reps rise.

10In hindsight

Everything above is the pre-draft evaluation. This section is what actually happened — updated year over year.

Pro Bowls
0
All-Pro
0
Seasons
0
Career AV

New Orleans handed him the job in camp and he opened 2025 as the Week 1 starter, then lost the huddle briefly midseason before reclaiming it and finishing as the clear answer. He played 11 games with nine starts, went 5-4 as a starter, completed 67.6 percent for 2,384 yards with 10 touchdowns and six interceptions, added 45 carries for 186 yards and three scores, and closed the year with a 333-yard, two-touchdown game against Tennessee in Week 17 and another two-score outing at Atlanta in Week 18. He was named to the PFWA All-Rookie Team and finished as the runner-up for Offensive Rookie of the Year.

In hindsight the age discount looks like the market's mistake, not the Saints'. The reason he was available at 40 — 25 years old, seven college seasons, an injury file — is the same reason he was ready to start immediately, and New Orleans got a functional starting quarterback out of a second-round pick while teams above them chased upside. The honest caveat is that his ceiling is still the one the board saw: an efficient, on-schedule operator who needs structure and protection around him, not a player who lifts a roster by himself.

Draft Sickos · retrospective scouting profile