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Retrospective scouting report · Class of 2024Consensus #033
WR· Round 2

Keon
Coleman.

Keon Coleman
Sickos Grade
72.6/100
Pre-draft #33

Florida State official athletic logoFlorida State· 6'3"· 213 lb· 4.61s 40

/ Recruiting profile
★★★★stars.8926
National · #377HS class · 2021
Opelousas Catholic School, LA
247Sports composite via CFBD
R2 · #33 · Buffalo Bills

"A jump-ball technician with a 38-inch vertical and a 4.61 forty, Coleman asks an offense to trust that winning the ball is a repeatable enough skill to survive never really winning the release."Pre-draft read

01Play style

Coleman is a 6-4, 213-pound X-receiver who plays outside the numbers and wins the ball rather than the leverage. He releases with a long first step, stacks the corner on the vertical stem, and late-hands the catch point, tracking the deep ball over either shoulder with legitimate 38-inch pop. The boundary fade and the back-shoulder throw are automatic.

The second layer is contested volume, not separation. He builds speed instead of flashing it, rounds his breaks on comebacks and digs, and rarely uncovers quickly against press. He blocks willingly, plays with edge after the catch, and returns punts. The signature is catch radius and sideline body control, not the release package.

02Scheme fit
Ideal system

Vertical play-action offense that lives on boundary fades, back-shoulder throws and shot plays off condensed formations.

Boundary XCondensed splitRed-zone fadePunt returner
Best role

Year 1: boundary X and designated red-zone target. Ceiling: high-volume contested-catch WR2 who tilts the goal line.

Wrong fit

Timing-based quick game that asks him to win instantly off press and separate on option routes at the sticks.

His value curve steepens inside the 20 and flattens on third-and-medium.

03Film room

Keon Coleman 2023 Regular Season Highlights | Florida State WR

Junior season at Florida State: fades, back-shoulder wins and the red-zone volume that defined the projection.

Keon Coleman 2024 Season Highlights

Rookie year in Buffalo, built almost entirely on deep shots and sideline adjustments.

Keon Coleman's Best Plays From 112-Yard Game vs. Baltimore Ravens

Week 1 of 2025, his best NFL game and the template for what the role could have been.

04The evaluation

Coleman is a big-framed perimeter receiver whose evaluation lives entirely at the catch point. He is a jump-ball specialist with elite vertical explosion, a wide catch radius, and the toughness to work the boundary against physical coverage, but he is not a separator by route craft or by pure long speed.

The production profile is thin and split across two programs. He caught seven passes as a freshman at Michigan State, broke out in 2022 with 58 catches for 798 yards and seven touchdowns, then transferred to Florida State and posted 50 catches for 658 yards with 11 touchdowns on an undefeated regular-season team. That is 115 career receptions across 34 games — a red-zone scorer more than a volume producer, with a 13.2 yards-per-catch mark in his final year that undersells the deep-ball tape and oversells his intermediate efficiency. The 4.61 forty confirmed what the film suggested about the vertical stem.

Boards split him between the back of round one and the top of round two, with the timed speed the deciding vote. Buffalo, working a receiver room stripped of its alpha, traded down from 32 and took him at 33 with the extra capital in hand. The call was a bet that size, ball skills, and red-zone value would carry a player who would have to earn his separation later.

05Strengths
  1. 01

    Catch point

    Wins above the rim with a 38-inch vertical and true late hands, high-pointing jump balls over corners who have him covered by the rulebook.

  2. 02

    Boundary radius

    Adjusts to off-platform and back-shoulder throws at the sideline, keeping his feet in bounds on throws thrown outside his frame.

  3. 03

    Red-zone scorer

    Nineteen career touchdowns on 115 catches, including 11 as a junior, converting fades and slants into points at a rate his yardage never showed.

  4. 04

    Contact strength

    Plays through hand-fighting on the stem and finishes catches with defenders draped on him rather than surrendering the ball.

  5. 05

    Return value

    Handled punt returns at Florida State with real vision and courage, adding a third-phase role that shortens his path to the field.

06Concerns
  1. 01

    Long speed

    A 4.61 forty confirmed the tape: he builds to speed rather than threatening the top of a coverage from the snap, capping his vertical win rate.

  2. 02

    Route rounding

    Comebacks and digs come out of the break wide and slow, letting off-coverage corners close the throwing window before the ball arrives.

  3. 03

    Press releases

    His release package is limited to length and effort, and quick-twitch corners can reroute him and disrupt the timing of the concept.

  4. 04

    Thin production

    One 800-yard season across three years, with a 13.2 yards-per-catch average as a junior that raises questions about separation volume.

07Athletic testing
Height
6'3"
Weight
213 lb
40 yd
4.61s
Vertical
38"
Broad
10'7"
06Athletic profilevs. WR on Big Board
40VERTBRD3CSHTLBNCH

— — — positional median (p50)

40 yd
4.61sp50
Vertical
38inp50
Broad jump
127inp50
Three-cone
s
Shuttle
s
Bench
rep
08College production
YrTeamGRecYdsTD
2021Michigan State107501
2022Michigan State12587987
2023Florida State125065811
Career34115150619

A dash means the figure is not published by a source we trust — never a zero we invented.

/ Usage share, 2023
10.6%of team plays
96 percentile at positionFlorida State
Pass plays · 20.5%Run plays · 0.5%Third down · 9.7%Passing downs · 10.9%
CFBD usage — share of the offense's plays involving the player

Honors

  • 2023 ACC champion (Florida State)
  • 11 receiving touchdowns in 2023
  • Florida State punt returner in 2023
09Pro comparisons
/ Likely outcome
Alshon JefferyPhiladelphia Eagles

Big-bodied boundary starter who scores in the red zone and lives on 50-50 balls rather than route craft.

/ Ceiling
Mike EvansTampa Bay Buccaneers

The ceiling if the contested-catch dominance scales to volume and he learns to stack corners without separation.

/ Floor
N'Keal HarryNew England Patriots

The floor if the release limitations and rounded breaks keep him from earning targets outside of scripted shots.

10In hindsight

Everything above is the pre-draft evaluation. This section is what actually happened — updated year over year.

Pro Bowls
0
All-Pro
0
Seasons
2
Career AV

Buffalo handed him a starting boundary job immediately in a room that had traded Stefon Diggs, and the rookie year looked like the good version of the projection: 29 catches for 556 yards and four touchdowns in 13 games, a 19.2 yards-per-catch average built on the exact deep shots and back-shoulder throws he was drafted to win. He missed time with a wrist injury and never became a target hog, but the efficiency was real and the playoff run gave him snaps in January.

Year two went sideways. He opened 2025 with eight catches for 112 yards and a touchdown against Baltimore and then faded into a possession role, finishing with 38 receptions for 404 yards and four scores at 10.6 a catch — more volume, far less juice. He was benched for a series against New England for a discipline issue and was a healthy scratch in Houston, which turned an efficiency question into a trust question. The pick still looks defensible for the price: Buffalo moved back a slot, added a fourth-rounder, and got a starting-caliber size target. But two years in, he is a role player who scores rather than the boundary weapon the room needed.

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