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Retrospective scouting report · Class of 2023Consensus #042
TE· Round 2

Luke
Musgrave.

Luke Musgrave
Sickos Grade
71.4/100
Pre-draft #42

Oregon State official athletic logoOregon State· 6'6"· 253 lb· 4.61s 40

/ Recruiting profile
★★★☆☆stars.8696
National · #763HS class · 2019
Bend Senior, OR
247Sports composite via CFBD
R2 · #42 · Green Bay Packers

"The fastest tight end in the class arrived with 46 career catches and a knee that ended his senior year after two games — Green Bay bought the stopwatch and hoped the tape would eventually catch up."Pre-draft read

01Play style

A 6-foot-6, 253-pound flex tight end whose value is built on straight-line speed rather than volume. Oregon State moved him inline as a Y, detached in the slot and split wide, using him mainly as a seam runner who forced safeties to widen. He accelerates off the line like a big receiver and separates late on crossers and deep overs where his stride length outruns linebackers.

The secondary trait is catch radius: long arms, easy extension away from the frame, comfortable adjusting to throws behind him. As a blocker he is willing and sound in the run game but plays with a narrow base and average pop, so he wins with angles and effort more than displacement. The signature is his gear change in space.

02Scheme fit
Ideal system

Spread passing game that detaches the tight end and attacks the middle of the field with seams, overs and play-action shots.

Flex YSlotSplit wideInline off play-action
Best role

Year 1: move tight end on passing downs and seam-stretcher in 11 personnel. Ceiling: full-time flex TE1 with 60-plus targets.

Wrong fit

A gap-scheme, 12-personnel run offense that asks him to line up inline every snap and dig out five-techniques on duo and power.

His value collapses the moment the job description becomes displacement blocking instead of vertical stress.

03Film room

Luke Musgrave Oregon State TE Highlights

Beavers career reel showing the seam speed and catch radius that drove his draft stock.

Luke Musgrave 2023 NFL Draft Scouting Profile

Film breakdown of his alignment versatility, route tree and blocking limitations.

Luke Musgrave Full 2023 Rookie Season Highlights

Every rookie-year target in Green Bay before the kidney injury cut the season short.

04The evaluation

Musgrave is a movement tight end with rare athletic tools and almost no production to anchor them. He arrived in Corvallis as a raw multi-sport athlete from Bend, Oregon, and grew into the Beavers' flex option, but a run-first offense and injuries kept the target share small throughout his four years on campus.

The tape shows what the box score does not. He caught 22 passes for 304 yards in 2021 as the team's primary vertical threat from the tight end spot, then opened 2022 with 11 catches for 169 yards in two games — a 15.4-yard average that hinted at a much bigger senior season — before a knee injury ended his year in September. He returned for the Senior Bowl and then ran 4.61 at 253 pounds in Indianapolis with elite explosion numbers, confirming on the stopwatch what evaluators had projected from limited film. The flags were real: 46 career receptions, thin play strength at the point of attack, and no proof he could carry a full-time workload.

The board split on him accordingly. Some rooms had him as the second tight end in the class behind Michael Mayer; others had him in the third-round range because of the production gap. Green Bay, installing a young passing game around Jordan Love, took the ceiling at 42 and doubled at the position later in the round.

05Strengths
  1. 01

    Vertical speed for the position

    4.61 at 253 pounds is legitimate seam-stretching juice that forces safeties to widen and opens the middle of the field underneath.

  2. 02

    Catch radius

    long arms and easy extension away from the frame let him pull in throws behind him, above him and on the back shoulder without breaking stride.

  3. 03

    Alignment versatility

    Oregon State used him inline, in the slot and split wide, and he ran the same route tree from each spot without a drop in speed.

  4. 04

    Open-field gear change

    accelerates through the catch point and turns crossers and overs into chunk plays because linebackers cannot match his stride length.

  5. 05

    Effort blocker

    willing in the run game, works to sustain and finds his angles on down blocks and second-level climbs even when he lacks the mass to displace.

06Concerns
  1. 01

    Production gap

    46 catches and 617 yards across four college seasons, with no year above 22 receptions, leaves almost no volume evidence behind the traits.

  2. 02

    Play strength

    narrow base and average pop at the point of attack mean he loses ground against heavy ends and gets stalemated on the edge in short yardage.

  3. 03

    Route detail

    rounds off breaks and relies on speed to separate rather than tempo and stem work, which shows up against physical man coverage.

  4. 04

    Durability

    a knee injury ended his 2022 season after two games, a real flag on a prospect who already needed volume to prove the projection.

07Athletic testing
Height
6'6"
Weight
253 lb
40 yd
4.61s
Vertical
36"
Broad
10'5"
06Athletic profilevs. TE on Big Board
40VERTBRD3CSHTLBNCH

— — — positional median (p50)

40 yd
4.61sp50
Vertical
36inp50
Broad jump
125inp50
Three-cone
s
Shuttle
s
Bench
rep
08College production
YrTeamGRecYdsTD
2019Oregon State42180
2020Oregon State7111260
2021Oregon State13223041
2022Oregon State2111691
Career26466172

Season totals verified against CollegeFootballData and Sports-Reference; the four seasons sum exactly to the 46/617/2 career line. 2022 ended after two games with a knee injury.

A dash means the figure is not published by a source we trust — never a zero we invented.

/ Usage share, 2022
9.8%of team plays
99 percentile at positionOregon State
Pass plays · 22.6%Run plays · 0.0%Third down · 0.0%Passing downs · 17.9%
CFBD usage — share of the offense's plays involving the player
09Pro comparisons
/ Likely outcome
Jordan AkinsCleveland Browns

Useful complementary flex tight end who moves well and produces in stretches without ever owning the position.

/ Ceiling
Evan EngramDenver Broncos

The realistic upside: a detached mismatch weapon whose speed dictates coverage even without inline blocking value.

/ Floor
Josiah DeguaraJacksonville Jaguars

A rotational piece whose athletic profile never converts into a stable target share.

10In hindsight

Everything above is the pre-draft evaluation. This section is what actually happened — updated year over year.

Pro Bowls
0
All-Pro
0
Seasons
3
Career AV

Musgrave played in 11 games with 10 starts for the Green Bay Packers in his rookie year, catching 34 passes for 352 yards and one touchdown. He missed time due to injury but showed potential as a receiving tight end.

Musgrave started fast as a rookie, catching 34 passes for 352 yards and a touchdown while playing a real role in Green Bay's spread passing game before a lacerated kidney in November cost him seven games. He returned for the playoff run, but the 2024 season went sideways: an ankle injury put him on injured reserve, he played only seven games, and Tucker Kraft — the tight end Green Bay took 36 picks later in the same draft — became the clear TE1. Musgrave stayed healthy for all 17 games in 2025 and logged 24 catches for 252 yards in a supporting role, blocking more and running fewer seams than his skill set suggests. He enters 2026 on the Packers roster as a complementary piece rather than a featured target.

In hindsight the pick was defensible and the outcome was ordinary. Green Bay bought traits and a projection instead of production, which is a reasonable bet on a tight end this fast, but health has never let the profile compound. The more instructive lesson is what happened one round later: Kraft, the less explosive and far more productive college player, turned into the starter. Musgrave is not a bust — he has been useful when available — but the second-round athletic swing paid off behind the third-round producer.

Data note: Season totals verified against CollegeFootballData and Sports-Reference; the four seasons sum exactly to the 46/617/2 career line. 2022 ended after two games with a knee injury.

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