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Retrospective scouting report · Class of 2023Consensus #025
TE· Round 1

Dalton
Kincaid.

Dalton Kincaid
Sickos Grade
80.3/100
Pre-draft #25

Utah official athletic logoUtah· 6'4"· 246 lb

R1 · #25 · Buffalo Bills

"A basketball player in a tight end's body who turned the middle of the field into a mismatch, and whose entire first-round case rests on hands and route feel rather than blocking."Pre-draft read

01Play style

Move tight end who lived detached from the formation at Utah, flexed into the slot or split wide on close to half his snaps and used as a big slot receiver more than a hand-in-the-dirt Y. Wins with tempo changes and body control rather than burst: sells vertical stems, sits down in soft zone, and adjusts late to off-platform throws with basketball hands.

Ball skills are the separator. He plays through contact at the catch point, high-points over safeties, and turns contested targets into first downs on third down and in the red zone. As a blocker he competes but wins with angles, not pop. Not a burner, but he stacks defenders with pace and gives a quarterback a reliable middle-of-the-field answer against man and zone alike.

02Scheme fit
Ideal system

Spread passing offense that uses the tight end as a movable big slot rather than an in-line Y

SlotDetached wingSplit wideInline (passing downs)
Best role

Year 1: move tight end and third-down/red-zone target working the middle of the field out of 11 and 12 personnel. Ceiling: a 70-catch primary mismatch weapon who dictates safety rotation.

Wrong fit

A gap-scheme, 12-personnel run team that needs its first tight end to reduce inside and dig out five-techniques on duo and power; his blocking will cost snaps there.

Value rises in offenses with a quarterback who works the middle of the field and creates off-schedule, where his tracking and adjustment skills are worth extra targets.

03Film room

Dalton Kincaid 2022 Highlights | Utah TE | 2023 NFL Draft Prospect

Full 2022 reel: seam work, contested catches, and the alignment variety that defined his final Utah season.

Dalton Kincaid vs USC

The 16-catch, 234-yard game against USC — the signature performance of his pre-draft case.

Dalton Kincaid Utah Highlights

Career cut showing route tempo, catch radius, and yards-after-catch feel from detached alignments.

04The evaluation

A converted basketball player from Las Vegas who did not play organized football until his senior year of high school, went to FCS San Diego, then transferred to Utah and turned into one of the most productive pass-catching tight ends in the country. His identity is receiver-first: alignment flexibility, route feel, and hands that finish everything inside the frame and plenty outside it.

The 2022 tape is the argument. He caught 70 balls for 890 yards and 8 touchdowns in 12 games, including a 16-catch, 234-yard game against USC that stands as one of the best single-game receiving days by a tight end in the sport's recent history. The flags were real too: he is a finesse blocker at the point of attack, he carried a back injury into the pre-draft process that kept him from testing, and the production came off a short football résumé against a mixed level of competition.

The board saw a top-two tight end in the class with a first-round grade tied to the passing game, not the run game. Teams that wanted a Y who could reduce and dig out ends had him lower. For an offense already built to spread the field, taking him at 25 was a bet that a tight end who behaves like a slot receiver is worth more than one who can block a five-technique.

05Strengths
  1. 01

    Catch point

    Basketball background shows up in the air: he high-points over safeties, adjusts to off-platform throws, and finishes contested targets through contact.

  2. 02

    Alignment versatility

    Aligned inline, in the slot, and split wide, which lets an offense create mismatches without substituting or tipping personnel.

  3. 03

    Route nuance

    Sells vertical stems, changes tempo at the top of routes, and finds the soft spot against zone instead of running to a landmark.

  4. 04

    Third-down and red-zone value

    Wide catch radius and strong hands make him a reliable target on money downs and inside the 20 where windows shrink.

  5. 05

    Yards after catch feel

    Smooth transition from catch to run, tracks blocks well in space, and rarely goes down on first contact from a defensive back.

06Concerns
  1. 01

    In-line blocking

    Competes and works angles but lacks the play strength and anchor to move edge defenders, which limits base run-game snaps.

  2. 02

    Long speed

    Good but not explosive down the seam; he separates with tempo and technique rather than pulling away from linebackers vertically.

  3. 03

    Medical file

    A back injury kept him from testing at the Combine and pro day, leaving teams without an athletic baseline to check the tape against.

  4. 04

    Short football résumé

    One high school season plus FCS reps means fewer thousands of snaps and some raw moments against physical, disciplined defenses.

08College production
YrTeamGRecYdsTD
2020Utah51140
2021Utah14365108
2022Utah12708908
Career31107141416

Utah seasons only (2020-2022), verified on cfbstats; his 2017-2019 San Diego (FCS) production is not carried in the FBS ledger.

A dash means the figure is not published by a source we trust — never a zero we invented.

/ Usage share, 2022
9.0%of team plays
98 percentile at positionUtah
Pass plays · 19.6%Run plays · 0.0%Third down · 11.2%Passing downs · 8.9%
CFBD usage — share of the offense's plays involving the player
09Pro comparisons
/ Likely outcome
Hunter HenryNew England Patriots

Productive receiving tight end who is a matchup problem on third down without being a run-game asset.

/ Ceiling
Jordan ReedWashington

Same slot-flex tight end blueprint and catch-point ease; the comparison lands only if he stays available.

/ Floor
Irv Smith Jr.Minnesota Vikings

Undersized move tight end whose availability and blocking limits keep him in a rotational role.

10In hindsight

Everything above is the pre-draft evaluation. This section is what actually happened — updated year over year.

Pro Bowls
0
All-Pro
0
Seasons
1
Career AV

Dalton Kincaid joined the Buffalo Bills and had a productive rookie season as a tight end, becoming a reliable pass-catching option.

Buffalo took him at 25 and asked him to be a slot-style weapon next to Josh Allen right away. He caught 73 passes for 673 yards and 2 touchdowns as a rookie in 2023 — heavy volume, thin explosiveness, and only occasional red-zone work. Year two was a step back: 44 catches for 448 yards and 2 scores in 13 games with a knee injury costing him time and the offense spreading targets across a receiver room built by committee. The 2025 season finally matched the projection. In 12 games he posted 39 catches for 571 yards and 5 touchdowns at 14.6 yards a catch, the vertical seam usage the Utah tape promised, then added 9 catches for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns across two playoff games. He earned his first Pro Bowl nod in January 2026 as a replacement selection, and Buffalo picked up his fifth-year option that spring.

In hindsight, the scouting report was accurate and the deployment took two years to catch up to it. He is exactly what the tape said — a receiving tight end who wins at the catch point and needs the offense to move him around rather than park him next to a tackle. He has not been a blocker, and the injury pattern that started with the pre-draft back issue has kept him from a full 17-game season. Fair value at 25 rather than a steal: a real starter and matchup piece, just not the every-down Y a first-round tight end is usually asked to be.

Data note: Utah seasons only (2020-2022), verified on cfbstats; his 2017-2019 San Diego (FCS) production is not carried in the FBS ledger.

Draft Sickos · retrospective scouting profile