Trey
Lance.
Trey
Lance.
North Dakota State· 6'3"· 224 lb
"Seventeen college starts, zero interceptions, and a projection so bold it cost San Francisco three first-round picks. The 49ers aren't drafting the 2021 QB — they're drafting the 2023 one."Pre-draft read
He operates from shotgun or under center, executing designed runs, RPOs, and boot-action. He delivers the ball with velocity, driving out-breaking throws with pop and accuracy, and dropping vertical routes with precise touch. His passing ability facilitates attacking defenses horizontally and vertically.
Beyond arm talent, he extends plays with his legs, eyes downfield, actively seeking open receivers. His athleticism and arm talent facilitate challenging throws from various arm angles, adapting to pressure or escape routes. He exhibits strong pre-snap acumen, identifying coverages and blitzes, and prioritizes ball security, leading to a low turnover rate.
The Shanahan outside zone running scheme, which often incorporates play-action passes and bootlegs, is a good fit for Lance's athletic profile and ability to throw on the move.
Year 1 will be a redshirt season to refine his reads and anticipation, with a ceiling as a top-tier starting quarterback who can lead a dynamic offense.
A traditional drop-back, vertical passing offense with complex pre-snap reads and limited designed runs would expose his rawness and decision-making speed.
Lance needs a system that can pre-solve some reads, emphasize his athleticism, and allow him time to develop against NFL defenses, making him a high-reward, high-risk projection.
2019 NDSU FCS playoff highlights — the championship run
The résumé that produced the projection: 28 passing touchdowns to zero interceptions, 14 rushing touchdowns and a Walter Payton Award on the way to a 16-0 national title.
NDSU vs Illinois State, 2019 — signature conference game
One of the cleanest live looks scouts had at Lance against the best defense on the FCS schedule — arm talent to every level and designed-run production against a real front.
Full 2021 pro day — every throw
The physical answer to every schedule question — 6-4, 224 pounds, a 4.68 forty and the deep-ball velocity that put him firmly in the top-three quarterback conversation.
This dual-threat quarterback presents a physically gifted profile, projecting as a potential franchise cornerstone due to elite physical traits and mental makeup. Teams seeking a high-ceiling player, despite limited college experience, found an attractive option with a developmental runway. He offers the athleticism and arm talent necessary to challenge defenses both through the air and on the ground.
His collegiate career at North Dakota State featured a record-setting 2019 season where he led the team to a national championship, throwing 28 touchdowns without an interception and adding substantial rushing yards in a run-heavy FCS offense. He played primarily against lower-level competition, and his 2020 season was limited to one game due to the FCS schedule shift.
Evaluators recognized his raw talent, but the significant leap from FCS competition and a small sample size generated caution. The consensus acknowledged his boom-or-bust potential, with teams needing to commit to a long-term development plan. Despite these concerns, he was selected as the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.
- 01
Arm talent and velocity
He delivers the ball with velocity, driving out-breaking throws with pop and accuracy.
- 02
Dual-threat athleticism
He extends plays with his legs, and his athleticism facilitates throws from various arm angles.
- 03
Pre-snap acumen
He exhibits strong pre-snap acumen, identifying coverages and blitzes before the snap.
- 04
Ball security focus
He prioritizes ball security, leading to a low turnover rate throughout his college career.
- 05
Accurate deep ball
He drops vertical routes with precise touch, facilitating attacking defenses vertically.
- 01
Limited experience
His collegiate career featured a limited number of games, specifically one full season as a starter.
- 02
FCS competition level
He played primarily against lower-level competition, which limits his evaluation against top defenses.
- 03
Small sample size
The 2020 season was limited to one game, reducing the available evaluation material.
- 04
Development needed
He presents boom-or-bust potential, with teams needing to commit to a long-term development plan.
Relative Athletic Score (Kent Lee Platte) benchmarks combine/pro-day numbers against every measured prospect at the position since 1987. 10.00 is elite; 5.00 is average.
— No athletic data recorded
| Yr | Team | G | Cmp | Att | Yds | TD | Int |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | North Dakota State | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
| 2019 | North Dakota State | 16 | 192 | 287 | 2786 | 28 | 0 |
| 2020 | North Dakota State | 1 | 15 | 30 | 149 | 2 | 1 |
| Career | — | 19 | 208 | 318 | 2947 | 30 | 1 |
A dash means the figure is not published by a source we trust — never a zero we invented.
Toolsy quarterback with a small college sample who never got the developmental runway his profile demanded and ended up as a reset-button starter turned high-end backup.
If the arm, legs and processing all land, the ceiling is a dual-threat franchise quarterback who punishes defenses with both body and brain.
Physical tools were fine, but mechanical inconsistency and a stalled developmental arc turned him into a career backup before his rookie deal ended.
Everything above is the pre-draft evaluation. This section is what actually happened — updated year over year.
2021 (SF): Held out through camp behind Jimmy Garoppolo. Made two starts as a rookie (Week 5 vs ARI, Week 17 vs HOU), threw 71 passes on the season with 5 TD to 2 INT, a 57.7% completion rate and 168 rushing yards. The Week 5 debut in Arizona was a 17-10 loss with a 15-of-29 line and one interception. — 2022 (SF): Named starter in training camp after San Francisco moved on from Garoppolo, then fractured his right ankle on a designed run in Week 2 vs Seattle, ending his season after 92 snaps. Garoppolo returned; Brock Purdy took over in Week 13 and led the team to the NFC Championship. — 2023 (DAL): Traded to Dallas in August for a 2024 fourth-round pick. Served as QB3 behind Dak Prescott and Cooper Rush with no regular-season appearances. — 2024 (DAL): Repeated as QB3 with a handful of garbage-time snaps. — 2025 (LAC): Signed as QB2 behind Justin Herbert. — Career totals through 2024: 5 TD to 3 INT, 797 passing yards, 235 rushing yards, 0-3 record as a starter.
The Trey Lance story as a top-three pick is really the story of the trade that put him there. San Francisco did not draft the quarterback who was ready for 2021; the 49ers drafted a projection of the quarterback Kyle Shanahan believed he could build by 2023, and they paid a historic price to do it — three first-round picks (2021, 2022, 2023) plus a third to jump from #12 to #3. No team in the modern era had mortgaged that much capital for a quarterback with seventeen career college starts. The bet had internal logic. NDSU ran a pro-style spread. Lance's 2019 season was as dominant as any FCS quarterback in a generation: 28 touchdowns to zero interceptions on 287 attempts, 1,100 rushing yards, a national title, a Walter Payton Award. His unofficial pro day in March 2021 confirmed the physical profile — 6-4, 224 pounds, a 4.68 forty and an arm that could throw the ball 60 yards from his knees. And Shanahan had Jimmy Garoppolo already in place as a proven bridge, which meant the developmental runway other teams could not offer a top-three quarterback in 2021 was, in theory, available in San Francisco.
The problem was the reps. An NFL quarterback needs roughly 1,000 to 1,500 competitive snaps against real coverage before the professional leap to have seen enough combinations for the game to slow down. Lance arrived with a fraction of that count against defenses that were not even close to what he would face in Week 1. Then the schedule broke against him. In 2021 he threw 71 passes as a rookie, starting two games while Garoppolo held the job. In 2022 he was named the starter in training camp, played one full game, and fractured his right ankle on a designed run in Week 2 — 92 snaps into his first season as a franchise quarterback. Garoppolo came back. Then Brock Purdy, the last pick in that same 2022 draft, took the job in Week 13 and led the team to the NFC Championship game. Purdy has held it ever since.
San Francisco traded Lance to Dallas in August 2023 for a fourth-round pick — the same slot they had just used, ironically, on Purdy the year before — a swap that quietly settled the ledger on the entire trade-up. Lance served two years as QB3 in Dallas behind Dak Prescott and Cooper Rush, made a handful of garbage-time appearances, and signed with the Chargers in 2025 as veteran depth behind Justin Herbert.
The verdict is not a judgment on the player. Lance was drafted before his career was ready to start, into a situation that required him to be ready immediately, and injured before he could accumulate the reps that were the entire point of the pick. It is a cautionary tale about paying franchise-quarterback prices for a projection that still needed years of runway to become a résumé — a bust in outcome terms, but more precisely a structural mismatch between the price paid and the developmental time the pick actually required.